Monday, February 25, 2008

Global Financial Conditions - Week ending February 22, 2008

Economic jitters weighed heavily on global equity markets over the past week. Investors primary fear of an incipient recession was further aggravated by the February Philly Fed index of factory output which shrank the most in seven years. Concommitantly, inflation qualms came to the fore, fueled by oil’s rally to records over USD 100 a barrel. An unexpected USD 2.5 bn ABS related writedown by Credit Suisse thanks to alleged ``mismarkings'' by a group of traders kept the lid on gains in the European markets with the FTSE slipping 1.0% across the week. Following a 1.15% plunge on Thursday, the Dow ended the week up 0.8% as markets spun around, sparked by hopes for a USD 3 bn bailout of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group. A rescue would enable the monoline to retain its AAA rating and help banks avoid losses on securities gauranteed by Ambac.
The beleaguered bond guarantors remain a focus of market attention. On Wednesday, several sources reported that the struggling bond guarantor, FGIC Corp, had notified the New York State Department about its intention to split the business into two companies, one insuring safe municipal bonds while the other keeping responsibility of riskier debt securities. While the move would help protect investors of safe municipal bonds, it threatens to roil banks that are large holders of MBS.
Meanwhile in an important development on the other side of the Atlantic, the U.K. Treasury acquired all of Northern Rock PLC’s shares, as a formal process to nationalize the distressed mortgage lender, in its bid to mitigate potential risks to the wider financial system if Northern Rock was to collapse.
The surge in iTraxx Europe Crossover index as well as the North America CDX index since the beginning of the year provides stark evidence that the contagion is spreading to investments linked to the corporate debt market. The annual cost of five years of insurance against default on USD 10 mn in bonds on the CDX index has risen to USD152,000 from USD 80,970 at the start of the year.
Conditions in the Money Market generally worsen...
Mounting strains in the credit market are beginning to take a toll on the short-term money markets with 3M USD LIBOR edging up by 1 bp over the last week to 3.08%. Over week ending February 20th 2008, the net liquidity borrowings through the repo and discount window stood at USD 18.1 bn. The total weekly borrowing from the discount window rose to USD 1.1 bn from USD 0.28 bn previously.
The Asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, which had shown notable improvement until the beginning of 2008, deteriorated for the 4th consecutive week after its outstanding value dropped by USD 11.7 bn as compared to a USD 6.2 bn dip in the previous week. As a part of its ongoing effort to alleviate liquidity concerns the Fed conducts its sixth TAF auction today, offering 28 day credit of USD 30 bn.

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